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October 31st, 2007

A Look At Cities

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The Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) consists of “a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of social and economic integration with that core.” (U.S. Census Bureau) Basically, New York City includes Long Island and most of New Jersey and other communities around it, but not Philadelphia. Philadelphia is its own MSA, and contains Camdon, Wilmington, etc.

The MSA population is a much better representation of the true size of a city compared to the official population. For example, the official population of St. Louis is about 350,000 persons, but when you take into account the surrounding communities that work and play in the city that number balloons to about 2.8 million. Quite a difference. Anyways, below is a list of the top 70 MSAs ranked by population.

The Common Name field is just something I made up, the Metropolitan Statistical Areas field is the label given by the Census Burea, the July 1, 2006 field is the latest population, the Census 2000 Estimate is the population estimated in year 2000, the % Growth field is the growth percentage from year 2000 to July 1, 2006, so basically a six-year growth percentage, and the last field, Estimated 2030 Population, is the estimated population in year 2030 based on the six-year growth percentage.

Rank Common Name Metropolitan statistical areas July 1,
2006		 Census 2000 Estimate Annual % Growth Estimated 2030 Population
1. New York City New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 18,818,536 18,323,002 0.45% 20,963,372
2. Los Angeles Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 12,950,129 12,365,627 0.79% 15,633,844
3. Chicago Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 9,505,748 9,098,316 0.75% 11,362,923
4. Dallas Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6,003,967 5,161,544 2.72% 11,433,466
5. Philadelphia Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5,826,742 5,687,147 0.41% 6,426,567
6. Houston Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 5,539,949 4,715,407 2.91% 11,038,973
7. Miami Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 5,463,857 5,007,564 1.52% 7,845,170
8. Washington, DC Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,290,400 4,796,183 1.72% 7,961,121
9. Atlanta Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 5,138,223 4,247,981 3.49% 11,712,691
10. Detroit Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 4,468,966 4,452,557 0.06% 4,535,311
11. Boston Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 4,455,217 4,391,344 0.24% 4,721,782
12. San Francisco San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 4,180,027 4,123,740 0.23% 4,414,320
13. Phoenix Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4,039,182 3,251,876 4.04% 10,437,933
14. Riverside, CA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4,026,135 3,254,821 3.95% 10,200,838
15. Seattle Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3,263,497 3,043,878 1.20% 4,347,853
16. Minneapolis Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3,175,041 2,968,806 1.16% 4,185,364
17. San Diego San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 2,941,454 2,813,833 0.76% 3,524,157
18. St. Louis St. Louis, MO-IL 2,796,368 2,698,687 0.60% 3,230,605
19. Tampa Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2,697,731 2,395,997 2.10% 4,441,214
20. Baltimore Baltimore-Towson, MD 2,658,405 2,552,994 0.69% 3,134,022
21. Denver Denver-Aurora, CO1 2,408,750 2,179,240 1.76% 3,657,280
22. Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA 2,370,776 2,431,087 -0.41% 2,146,371
23. Portland, OR Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 2,137,565 1,927,881 1.81% 3,289,801
24. Cleveland Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 2,114,155 2,148,143 -0.26% 1,984,334
25. Cincinnati Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 2,104,218 2,009,632 0.78% 2,538,249
26. Sacramento Sacramento–Arden-Arcade–Roseville, CA 2,067,117 1,796,857 2.51% 3,744,792
27. Orlando Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 1,984,855 1,644,561 3.45% 4,478,451
28. Kansas City Kansas City, MO-KS 1,967,405 1,836,038 1.19% 2,614,882
29. San Antonio San Antonio, TX 1,942,217 1,711,703 2.24% 3,308,687
30. San Jose San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 1,787,123 1,735,819 0.49% 2,010,817
31. Las Vegas Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 1,777,539 1,375,765 4.87% 5,561,337
32. Columbus Columbus, OH 1,725,570 1,612,694 1.17% 2,279,385
33. Indianapolis Indianapolis-Carmel, IN 1,666,032 1,525,104 1.54% 2,404,277
34. Virginia Beach Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 1,649,457 1,576,370 0.77% 1,984,148
35. Providence Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA 1,612,989 1,582,997 0.32% 1,739,774
36. Charlotte Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC 1,583,016 1,330,448 3.16% 3,343,152
37. Austin Austin-Round Rock, TX 1,513,565 1,249,763 3.52% 3,470,442
38. Milwaukee Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 1,509,981 1,500,741 0.10% 1,547,611
39. Nashville Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro, TN 1,455,097 1,311,789 1.82% 2,243,701
40. Jacksonville Jacksonville, FL 1,277,997 1,122,750 2.30% 2,208,056
41. Memphis Memphis, TN-MS-AR 1,274,704 1,205,204 0.96% 1,603,645
42. Louisville Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN 1,222,216 1,161,975 0.86% 1,502,528
43. Richmond Richmond, VA 1,194,008 1,096,957 1.47% 1,696,596
44. Hartford Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 1,188,841 1,148,618 0.58% 1,367,038
45. Oklahoma Oklahoma City, OK 1,172,339 1,095,421 1.17% 1,549,979
46. Buffalo Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 1,137,520 1,170,111 -0.46% 1,017,328
47. Birmingham Birmingham-Hoover, AL 1,100,019 1,052,238 0.76% 1,318,216
48. Salt Lake City Salt Lake City, UT 1,067,722 968,858 1.70% 1,600,414
49. Rochester Rochester, NY 1,035,435 1,037,831 -0.04% 1,025,915
50. New Orleans New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 1,024,678 1,316,510 -3.69% 415,157
51. Raleigh Raleigh-Cary, NC 994,551 797,071 4.13% 2,626,494
52. Tucson Tucson, AZ 946,362 843,746 2.03% 1,531,861
53. Honolulu Honolulu, HI 909,863 876,156 0.64% 1,060,705
54. Bridgeport Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 900,440 882,567 0.34% 976,282
55. Tulsa Tulsa, OK 897,752 859,532 0.74% 1,071,808
56. Fresno Fresno, CA 891,756 799,407 1.93% 1,409,356
57. Albany Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 850,957 825,875 0.51% 960,579
58. New Haven New Haven-Milford, CT 845,244 824,008 0.43% 936,820
59. Dayton Dayton, OH 838,940 848,153 -0.18% 803,237
60. Omaha Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 822,549 767,041 1.21% 1,096,789
61. Albuquerque Albuquerque, NM 816,811 729,649 1.99% 1,310,997
62. Allentown Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ 800,336 740,395 1.35% 1,104,004
63. Oxnard Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 799,720 753,197 1.03% 1,022,564
64. Worchester Worcester, MA 784,992 750,963 0.76% 940,346
65. Bakersfield Bakersfield, CA 780,117 661,645 2.98% 1,580,018
66. Grand Rapids Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 774,084 740,482 0.76% 927,517
67. Baton Rouge Baton Rouge, LA 766,514 705,973 1.43% 1,077,551
68. El Paso El Paso, TX 736,310 679,622 1.39% 1,025,564
69. Columbia Columbia, SC 703,771 647,158 1.46% 996,097
70. Akron Akron, OH 700,943 694,960 0.14% 725,484

One last note, when you compare the year 2030 top ten MSA population estimates to the current top ten MSA estimates you find a few surprising changes. (But make sure you see the final note.)

MSA Top Ten in Year 2006

  1. New York City
  2. Los Angeles
  3. Chicago
  4. Dallas
  5. Philadelphia
  6. Houston
  7. Miami
  8. Washington, DC
  9. Atlanta
  10. Detroit

MSA Top Ten in Year 2030*

  1. New York City
  2. Los Angeles
  3. Atlanta
  4. Dallas
  5. Chicago
  6. Houston
  7. Phoenix
  8. Riverside, CA
  9. Washington, DC
  10. Miami

*Based on my very rudimentary projections

Atlanta bigger than Chicago? Highly doubtful, I don’t think it can sustain that same amount of growth for twenty-five more years. But who knows? I wonder if we’ll still be using HTML?

Commentary
Nov-07, 2007 9:43 am
Aaron Marshallhttp://www.churchsmo.com 1

I think Louisville will be even more like 2 million… Infact, I will make that a personal goal.

Nov-20, 2007 12:16 pm
The Other David 2

I agree. I think Atlanta is seeing the growth from the 2000 Olympics still.

It is amazing what happens to a city after infrastructure improvement and global advertisement.

Also ridiculous is Phoenix’s growth. That certainly won’t continue for 25 years.

Nov-20, 2007 12:20 pm
The Other David 3

I meant 1996 Olympics.

Sorry.

Nov-20, 2007 12:28 pm
David Yeiser 4

Good observation, I never really made that connection. Yeah, I think Phoenix would implode if that growth rate continued.

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